The Sure Thing That Wasn’T

jin

The Sure Thing That Wasn’T



jin

Many of those people got especially carried away on technology and Internet stocks, believing the high-tech hype that this industry would keep outgrowing every other for years to come, if not forever:

English Translator

众多投资者特别沉迷于科技和互联网股票,他们笃信高科技行业的炒作,确信这个行业将在未来数年,甚至永远超越其他所有行业的增长。


jin

特别解释一下这句话中的Carry away:
Many of those people got especially carried away on technology and Internet stocks

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在这句话中,“Carry away”是一个短语,它的意思是指某人因为极度的兴奋、激情或者其他强烈的情感而失去自我控制。在财经和投资的语境中,这个短语经常用来描述投资者对某种投资趋势或者特定股票的过度热情,以至于他们可能会忽视风险,过度投资,或者做出不理智的决策。


所以,这句话中的意思是许多人对科技和互联网股票表现出了过度的热情,可能在投资时忽略了理智和谨慎,被自己的情绪带走了。这种情况可能发生在股市泡沫或者市场过热的时候,投资者因为看到其他人获得高额回报而跟风投资,没有进行适当的风险评估。


jin

In mid-1999, after earning a 117.3% return in just the first five months of the year, Monument Internet Fund portfolio

English Translator

在1999年年中,仅仅在当年的头五个月里,Monument互联网基金组合的收益率就达到了117.3%,


jin

Monument Internet Fund portfolio manager Alexander Cheung predicted that his fund would gain 50% a year over the next three to five years and an annual average of 35% “over the next 20 years.”5

English Translator

Monument互联网基金组合的经理Alexander Cheung预测,他的基金在接下来的三到五年内每年将获得50%的收益,并且在“未来20年内”将实现35%的年均收益率。


jin

After his Amerindo Technology Fund rose an incredible 248.9% in 1999, portfolio manager Alberto Vilar ridiculed anyone who dared to doubt that the Internet was a perpetual moneymaking machine: “If you’re out of this sector, you’re going to underperform. You’re in a horse and buggy, and I’m in a Porsche. You don’t like tenfold growth opportunities? Then go with someone else.”

English Translator

在他的Amerindo科技基金在1999年惊人地上涨了248.9%之后,组合经理Alberto Vilar嘲笑任何敢于怀疑互联网是一个永久赚钱机器的人:“如果你不投资这个领域,你的表现就会逊色。你还在驾驶马车,而我已经坐在保时捷里。你不喜欢十倍增长的机会吗?那么就去找别人吧。”


jin

In February 2000, hedge-fund manager James J. Cramer proclaimed that Internet-related companies “are the only ones worth owning right now.” These “winners of the new world,” as he called them, “are the only ones that are going higher consistently in good days and bad.” Cramer even took a potshot at Graham: “You have to throw out all of the matrices and formulas and texts that existed before the Web…. If we used any of what Graham and Dodd teach us, we wouldn’t have a dime under management.”

English Translator

在2000年2月,对冲基金经理James J. Cramer宣称与互联网相关的公司“是目前唯一值得拥有的。”他所谓的“新世界的赢家”、“无论是在好日子还是坏日子里都一直稳定上升。”Cramer甚至对Graham进行了尖锐的批评:“你必须抛弃网络出现之前所有的矩阵、公式和教科书……如果我们使用Graham和Dodd教导我们的任何东西,我们就不会管理一分钱。”


jin

All these so-called experts ignored Graham’s sober words of warning: “Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.” While it seems easy to foresee which industry will grow the fastest, that foresight has no real value if most other investors are already expecting the same thing. By the time everyone decides that a given industry is “obviously” the best one to invest in, the prices of its stocks have been bid up so high that its future returns have nowhere to go but down.

English Translator

众多所谓的专家都忽视了Graham的冷静警告:“一个企业明显的物理增长前景,并不直接转化为投资者的明显利润。”尽管预见哪个行业将成为增长最快的似乎很容易,但如果大多数其他投资者已经有相同的预期,这种预见就没有真正的价值。当每个人都认定某个行业“显然”是最佳投资对象时,其股票价格已经被哄抬到如此之高,以至于它未来的回报别无选择,只能下跌。


jin

For now at least, no one has the gall to try claiming that technology will still be the world’s greatest growth industry. But make sure you remember this: The people who now claim that the next “sure thing” will be health care, or energy, or real estate, or gold, are no more likely to be right in the end than the hypesters of high tech turned out to be.

English Translator

至少目前为止,还没有人敢声称技术仍将是世界上最大的增长行业。但请记住这一点:那些现在声称下一个“确定之事”将是医疗保健、能源、房地产或黄金的人,最终正确的可能性并不比曾大肆宣传高科技的炒作者更高。


jin

The Sure Thing That Wasn’T

English Translator

无法确保的“确定之事”



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