Chapter 1
Investment versus Speculation: Results to Be Expected by the Intelligent Investor

第一章
投资与投机：智慧投资者所能期待的结果

解释speculation

"Speculation" 这个词主要有两个含义，一个是在金融领域，另一个是在一般的语境中。

1. 金融领域：在金融领域，speculation 指的是一种投资行为，投资者基于对市场未来走势的推测来买卖股票、商品、货币、地产等金融工具，以期望从价格波动中获利。这种行为通常涉及较高的风险，因为它基于预测市场的不确定性。与投资相比，投机更多地依赖短期交易来实现盈利，而不是基于资产的内在价值或长期表现。

   
   



2. 一般语境：在更广泛的意义上，speculation 指的是对某件事情的猜测或推测，通常在没有充分证据的情况下。例如，人们可能会对公众人物的行为、未来事件的发生，或者任何未知的情况做出推测。这种用法下，speculation 通常不是基于确凿的信息，而是基于假设、可能性和理论。

   
   

在两种情况下，speculation 都涉及到对未来的某种预测或猜想，但在金融领域，这个词通常与实际的买卖行为相联系，并涉及到资金的投入和风险承担。

This chapter will outline the viewpoints that will be set forth in the remainder of the book. In particular we wish to develop at the outset our concept of appropriate portfolio policy for the individual, nonprofessional investor.

本章将概述本书余下部分将提出的观点。特别是，我们希望在一开始就阐述我们对于个人非专业投资者合适的投资组合策略的看法。

Investment versus Speculation

投资与投机

What do we mean by “investor”? Throughout this book the term will be used in contradistinction to “speculator.” As far back as 1934, in our textbook Security Analysis,1 we attempted a precise formulation of the difference between the two, as follows: “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of

本书中，“投资者”一词将与“投机者”形成对比。早在1934年，我们在教科书《证券分析》中就试图对两者之间的差异进行精确的阐述，定义如下：“一项投资操作是这样一种操作，经过彻底的分析，它承诺本金安全并能够提供适当的回报。”

What do we mean by “investor”? Throughout this book the term will be used in contradistinction to “speculator.” As far back as 1934, in our textbook Security Analysis,1 we attempted a precise formulation of the difference between the two, as follows: “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

在本书中，“投资者”这个词将与“投机者”形成鲜明对比。早在1934年，在我们的教科书《证券分析》中，我们就试图精确地阐述两者的区别，具体如下：“投资操作是这样一种操作，经过彻底分析后，它承诺本金安全并能够提供足够的回报。不符合这些条件的操作是投机性的。”

While we have clung tenaciously to this definition over the ensuing 38 years, it is worthwhile noting the radical changes that have occurred in the use of the term “investor” during this period. After the great market decline of 1929–1932 all common stocks were widely regarded as speculative by nature. (A leading authority stated flatly that only bonds could be bought for investment.2) Thus we had then to defend our definition against the charge that it gave too wide scope to the concept of investment.

尽管在随后的38年里，我们一直坚守这一定义，但值得注意的是，在此期间，“投资者”一词的用法发生了根本性的变化。在1929至1932年的大市场衰退之后，所有普通股票普遍被视为天生具有投机性。（一位权威人士断言，只有债券才能作为投资购买。）因此，我们当时必须捍卫我们的定义，以反驳这一定义将投资概念界定得过宽的指控。

Now our concern is of the opposite sort. We must prevent our readers from accepting the common jargon which applies the term “investor” to anybody and everybody in the stock market. In our last edition we cited the following headline of a front-page article of our leading financial journal in June 1962:

现在我们关注的是相反的问题。我们必须阻止我们的读者接受那种将“投资者”一词应用于股票市场中任何人的通俗说法。在我们的上一版中，我们引用了1962年6月我们主要财经期刊头版文章的以下标题：

SMALL INVESTORS BEARISH, THEY ARE SELLING ODD-LOTS SHORT

小额投资者看跌，他们正在抛售零碎股票。

In October 1970 the same journal had an editorial critical of what it called “reckless investors,” who this time were rushing in on the buying side.

1970年10月，该杂志发表了一篇社论，批评了它所谓的“鲁莽投资者”，这些投资者这次却在购买方急于行动。

These quotations well illustrate the confusion that has been dominant for many years in the use of the words investment and speculation. Think of our suggested definition of investment given above, and compare it with the sale of a few shares of stock by an inexperienced member of the public, who does not even own what he is selling, and has some largely emotional conviction that he will be able to buy them back at a much lower price. (It is not irrelevant to point out that when the 1962 article appeared the market had already experienced a decline of major size, and was now getting ready for an even greater upswing. It was about as poor a time as possible for selling short.) In a more general sense, the later-used phrase “reckless investors” could be regarded as a laughable contradiction in terms—something like “spendthrift misers”—were this misuse of language not so mischievous.

这些引文很好地说明了多年来在使用“投资”和“投机”这两个词时的混淆。回想我们上文提出的投资定义，并将其与一个缺乏经验的公众成员出售少量股票的行为相比较，此人甚至并不拥有他所出售的东西，且基于某种主要是情绪化的信念，他相信自己能在价格大幅下跌时买回这些股票。（值得一提的是，当1962年的文章发表时，市场已经经历了一次重大的下跌，并且正准备迎来更大的上升。那大约是卖空股票可能的最糟糕时机。）从更广义上讲，后来使用的“鲁莽投资者”这个词组，如果不是由于语言的误用而如此具有破坏性的话，可以看作是一个可笑的矛盾修饰，有点像“挥霍的守财奴”。

The newspaper employed the word “investor” in these instances because, in the easy language of Wall Street, everyone who buys or sells a security has become an investor, regardless of what he buys, or for what purpose, or at what price, or whether for cash or on margin. Compare this with the attitude of the public toward common stocks in 1948, when over 90% of those queried expressed themselves as opposed to the purchase of common stocks.3 About half gave as their reason “not safe, a gamble,” and about half, the reason “not familiar with.”* It is indeed ironical (though not surprising) that common-stock purchases of all kinds were quite generally regarded as highly speculative or risky at a time when they were selling on a most attractive basis, and due soon to begin their greatest advance in history; conversely the very fact they had advanced to what were undoubtedly dangerous levels as judged by past experience later transformed them into “investments,” and the entire stock-buying pu ...

报纸在这些情况下使用“投资者”一词，因为在华尔街的通俗语言中，任何购买或出售证券的人都成了投资者，不管他买什么，出于什么目的，以什么价格购买，或是现金购买还是保证金购买。将这与公众在1948年对普通股票的态度相比较，当时超过90%的受访者表达了他们反对购买普通股的观点。约一半的人将“不安全，是赌博”作为他们的理由，另一半的人则是“不熟悉”。确实具有讽刺意味的是（尽管并不令人惊讶），在普通股票的价格最具吸引力，即将开始其历史上最大幅度增长的时期，所有类型的普通股购买普遍被视为高度投机或风险性的；相反，正是因为它们的价格已经上涨到根据过去的经验无疑是危险水平，这一事实后来将它们转变成了“投资”，并且将整个股票购买公众变成了“投资者”。

The distinction between investment and speculation in common stocks has always been a useful one and its disappearance is a cause for concern. We have often said that Wall Street as an institution would be well advised to reinstate this distinction and to emphasize it in all its dealings with the public.

在普通股中区分投资与投机一直是有益的，这种区分的消失是令人担忧的。我们经常说，作为一个机构的华尔街应该明智地恢复这种区分，并在其与公众的所有交易中强调它。

Otherwise the stock exchanges may some day be blamed for heavy speculative losses, which those who suffered them had not been properly warned against.

否则，股票交易所可能有一天会因为重大的投机性亏损而受到责备，而遭受这些亏损的人并没有得到适当的警告。

Ironically, once more, much of the recent financial embarrassment of some stock-exchange firms seems to have come from the inclusion of speculative common stocks in their own capital funds. We trust that the reader of this book will gain a reasonably clear idea of the risks that are inherent in common-stock commitments—risks which are inseparable from the opportunities of profit that they offer, and both of which must be allowed for in the investor’s calculations.

讽刺的是，最近一些股票交易公司的财务困境似乎很大程度上是由于它们将投机性普通股纳入了自己的资本基金。我们相信，本书的读者将会对普通股投资所固有的风险有一个相当清晰的认识——这些风险与它们所提供的盈利机会不可分离，投资者在计算时必须同时考虑二者。

解释一下common stocks

"Common stocks"（普通股）是公司发行的一种股权证券，代表着对公司所有权的一部分。普通股持有者通常有权在公司的股东大会上投票，选举董事会成员，并就其他重要事项发表意见。此外，普通股股东在公司盈利时通常有权获得股息，尽管这些股息通常不是固定的，而是取决于公司的盈利能力和董事会的决策。

普通股与其他类型的股票（如优先股）相比，具有以下特点：

1. 投票权：普通股股东通常拥有投票权，可以在公司的年度或特别股东大会上就公司的重要决策进行投票。

   
   



2. 股息：普通股股东可能会获得股息，但这些股息不是保证的，而且可能随公司盈利情况的变化而变化。

   
   



3. 资本增值：普通股的价值可能会随着公司业绩的好转而增加，从而为股东提供资本增值的机会。

   
   



4. 风险和回报：普通股通常被认为是相对风险较高的投资方式，因为如果公司破产，普通股股东在清算过程中的偿还顺序排在债权人和优先股股东之后。

   
   



5. 无到期日：与债券不同，普通股没有到期日，除非公司被收购或停止营业，否则股票会一直存在。

   
   



6. 股价波动：普通股的市场价格可能会因为市场条件、公司业绩、经济因素等多种原因而波动。

   
   

投资者购买普通股是希望通过股票的升值和可能的股息分配获得回报。然而，他们也需要意识到投资普通股可能面临的风险，并准备承担股价下跌的可能性。

仔細解釋 clear idea of the risks that are inherent in common-stock commitments—risks which are inseparable from the opportunities of profit that they offer

普通股投资所固有的风险是不可分割的，这些风险伴随着投资者希望获得利润的机会。让我们仔细解释一下这些风险：

1. 市场风险：普通股的价格可能会因市场条件、经济变化、行业动态或公司业绩等因素而波动。这意味着投资者可能会面临股价下跌的风险，从而导致投资本金的损失。

   
   



2. 公司业绩风险：公司的盈利能力和经营状况可能会对股价产生重大影响。如果公司业绩不佳，股价可能会下跌，投资者可能会面临损失。

   
   



3. 法律和监管风险：法律和监管变化可能会对公司的业务产生影响，从而影响股价。此外，公司可能会因违反法律或监管要求而面临罚款或其他法律责任，对股价产生负面影响。

   
   



4. 流动性风险：普通股可能不像债券或其他固定收益证券那样具有较高的流动性。在市场情况不佳时，投资者可能会发现很难以期望的价格卖出股票，从而产生流动性风险。

   
   



5. 公司破产风险：如果公司陷入财务困境并最终破产，普通股股东通常排在债权人和优先股股东之后，可能无法收回投资。

   
   



6. 通货膨胀风险：通货膨胀可能会对公司盈利和股价产生负面影响，从而影响投资者的实际回报。

   
   

这些风险表明，普通股投资并非没有风险的。尽管普通股提供了盈利机会，但投资者需要认识到，这些机会是伴随着风险而来的。因此，在进行普通股投资时，投资者需要对这些风险有清醒的认识，并制定相应的风险管理策略，以平衡风险和回报。